Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa83efa3e7150b320f3004d971fa43dec8f3c61730995e815d981926b4f8cd814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 266.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 28c | 262.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 39c | 231.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 206.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 8c | 199.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 197.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed No | 74c | 186.8$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 16c | 186.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ca1cbacked No | 79c | 174.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 168.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…2c2ebacked Yes | 16c | 164.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 162.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 27c | 147.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 146.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 144.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 128.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 120.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 9c | 111.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 71c | 109.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 93.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 85.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 83.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 81.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 37c | 79.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 71.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 56c | 62.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 54c | 59.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 35c | 54.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 51.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 48.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 33c | 44.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 37c | 43.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 79c | 39.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 34c | 37.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 79c | 37.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 52c | 36.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 35c | 35.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 32.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 57c | 31.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 31.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…0952backed Yes | 36c | 31.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 67c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 66c | 24.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 49c | 21.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7889…ad4dbacked Yes | 50c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 70c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 64c | 20.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 74c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed No | 64c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…7548backed No | 80c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 75c | 13.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.