Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b83aa446f5561ea568ed7ac1beff3389d1090902336bb5d1a1b031f16cfc85e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b76…21b3backed Yes | 7c | 7,280$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…aab4backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 5c | 4,892$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 4c | 3,145$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 6c | 2,247$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 795.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…22b6backed Yes | 3c | 704.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 5c | 690.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 5c | 680$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…2b59backed Yes | 5c | 626.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 5c | 599.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 5c | 545.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…018dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Yes | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8d…673abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 5c | 242.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…bfe0backed Yes | 5c | 240.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 5c | 212.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.