Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x237bca08becf37e14e3ae9dc1713fc7810d5b0db5c60e6e14424c0f437a17fb2

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,143,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,287,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,143,747 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No	9c	371,610$32,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32,751.39	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No	14c	60,284$8,686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,686.03	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No	14c	59,019$8,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,262.69	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No	14c	50,000$7,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,000	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No	6c	44,520$2,849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,849.04	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No	15c	35,500$5,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,325	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed No	14c	25,834$3,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,616.76	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No	15c	20,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,999.99	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No	14c	19,026$2,664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,663.57	762	34.8%265 W · 497 L	+9.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No	13c	18,000$2,390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,389.98	98	31.6%31 W · 67 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-26%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No	16c	15,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No	12c	11,275$1,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,349.2	751	42.5%319 W · 432 L	-26.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e0…292ebacked No	14c	10,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No	2c	10,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	332	44.6%148 W · 184 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No	14c	9,613$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,349.75	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed No	14c	8,813$1,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,257.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed No	15c	7,606$1,156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,156.09	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No	1c	7,027$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.36	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+287.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked No	1c	6,944$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.35	60	10%6 W · 54 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+119.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No	15c	5,937$890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.5	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea66…68ffbacked No	14c	5,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No	13c	4,964$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.65	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-6.0wins	-0.16per pick	38cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No	14c	4,637$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.7	447	49.4%221 W · 226 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed No	1c	4,250$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.44	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked No	14c	3,700$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed No	15c	3,333$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No	3c	3,159$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.45	536	45.9%246 W · 290 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No	14c	2,988$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.37	116	44.8%52 W · 64 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked No	14c	2,925$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.5	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed No	14c	2,915$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.95	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed No	13c	2,665$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.45	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	40cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed No	14c	1,981$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.52	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	54cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed No	16c	1,520$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.17	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+87%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No	14c	1,430$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.35	109	42.2%46 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked No	15c	1,346$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.27	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed No	15c	1,333$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No	15c	1,264$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.65	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.20per pick	43cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x114f…42c6backed No	14c	1,200$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No	9c	1,058$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.22	240	50.4%121 W · 119 L	+18.5wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…8390backed No	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No	14c	805$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.64	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd87…decabacked No	6c	799.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	150	24%36 W · 114 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…0a8dbacked No	13c	636.75$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.78	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	12c	618.53$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.94	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed No	7c	600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	15c	591.48$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.7	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed No	15c	586.17$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.8	101	50.5%51 W · 50 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd483…6365backed No	14c	506.01$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.06	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49e2…018dbacked No	14c	500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.29	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fb…7c39backed No	16c	446.63$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.46	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-13%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No	14c	390.72$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.08	97	46.4%45 W · 52 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No	15c	382.16$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.15	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No	14c	373.63$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.31	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No	8c	345$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	8c	342$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	491	43.2%212 W · 279 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed No	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c8d…673abacked No	14c	305.89$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.38	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	110	36.4%40 W · 70 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed No	15c	300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe21…2f9cbacked No	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No	14c	290.71$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+16%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed No	13c	270$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.1	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	10c	250$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	337	37.4%126 W · 211 L	-11.2wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	13c	236$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	210	41.9%88 W · 122 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No	8c	220$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	223	32.3%72 W · 151 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac8…bca4backed No	17c	205.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked No	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No	15c	194.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.73	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked No	15c	185$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.02	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No	14c	176.57$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.24	194	46.4%90 W · 104 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No	10c	145.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	133	32.3%43 W · 90 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-37%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c67…63fcbacked No	14c	138.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…f75cbacked No	14c	133.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed No	19c	127.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed No	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	243	22.2%54 W · 189 L	-13.3wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	14c	118.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-3.8wins	-0.17per pick	40cpaid	-45%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked No	14c	116.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed No	13c	115.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+67.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No	13c	112.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked No	15c	109$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed No	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	98	46.9%46 W · 52 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed No	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	52	50%26 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed No	14c	74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-5.4wins	-0.24per pick	43cpaid	-69%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3f6a…9b88backed No	14c	72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21?this page
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No won
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-12-21?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-21?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event