Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b91df01220dd5aa451656634d42be79a4a4391f5e5c83181e64a70d0b4a54a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Nigma Galaxy, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,736 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons | 75c | 4,025$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.68 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 2,245$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.27 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 1,800$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.9 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Team Falcons | 76c | 1,089$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 1,047$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.32 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Team Falcons | 73c | 753.42$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Team Falcons | 73c | 546.22$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 77c | 545.02$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…f092backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 461.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 444.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…4568backed Team Falcons | 67c | 368$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 367.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 357.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Team Falcons | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Team Falcons | 75c | 213.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 150.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 138.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 129.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…21c2backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 114.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Nigma Galaxy | 14c | 86.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Team Falcons | 73c | 81.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Team Falcons | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 73.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Falcons | 73c | 64.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Team Falcons | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…bc27backed Team Falcons | 73c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…67f7backed Team Falcons | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.