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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Nigma Galaxy, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,263 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c29…afadbacked Team Falcons75c15,945$11,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,024.86150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Nigma Galaxy29c15,265$4,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.2471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons72c12,202$8,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.7255157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cd…4dd1backed Team Falcons79c4,380$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.722556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Nigma Galaxy25c4,268$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.9433746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy20c4,240$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.932,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Nigma Galaxy27c3,452$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.4651751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy25c2,530$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.761,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy31c2,012$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.81,20242.8%514 W · 688 L+38.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Falcons77c1,550$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3218075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Nigma Galaxy28c1,205$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.4718746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy27c1,193$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221,20759.3%716 W · 491 L+64.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons80c1,188$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.639660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy27c1,071$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.911,82345.1%822 W · 1,001 L+34.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed Nigma Galaxy31c977.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ccb…bbd7backed Nigma Galaxy29c900.31$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.15837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons73c640.2$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.361,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Nigma Galaxy11c600$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6613027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Falcons79c455.4$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4536654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Nigma Galaxy29c449.91$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4320858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Nigma Galaxy24c422.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Nigma Galaxy23c394.9$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons77c353.16$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1648352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Nigma Galaxy22c327.82$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7254753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons79c316.59$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5947660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nigma Galaxy22c299.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6656243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…60ccbacked Nigma Galaxy30c299.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.73647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy24c286.27$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.692,83543.6%1,237 W · 1,598 L-39.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Team Falcons73c283.05$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5716550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Falcons71c281.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9726453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Team Falcons73c239.39$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.536753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Nigma Galaxy20c238.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2946649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Team Falcons73c223.25$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2911549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Team Falcons73c222.11$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.88251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Falcons64c199.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Nigma Galaxy47c192.47$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030456.6%172 W · 132 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52e…ac6dbacked Nigma Galaxy28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy23c152.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.041,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons62c146.91$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4692561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Team Falcons73c136.66$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4713247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Nigma Galaxy41c126.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb150…236dbacked Nigma Galaxy28c124.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352642.3%11 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy30c111.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Team Falcons73c90.77$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.811450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Team Falcons73c84.64$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0415452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Team Falcons73c82.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7610550.5%53 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Nigma Galaxy18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.419540.5%79 W · 116 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Team Falcons72c75.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.759650%48 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Nigma Galaxy21c73.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3549644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Nigma Galaxy20c72.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5223149.4%114 W · 117 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed Team Falcons73c68.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.896149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Team Falcons73c66.23$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.126650%33 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Team Falcons76c65.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4521650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Falcons68c65.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8619251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed Team Falcons78c64.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2632154.8%176 W · 145 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Nigma Galaxy29c61.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5535948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Nigma Galaxy29c60.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.615248%73 W · 79 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1019…d7cabacked Team Falcons73c55.9$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.236650%33 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Team Falcons73c54.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0110250%51 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf151…24c7backed Team Falcons73c53.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.716849.4%83 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Team Falcons73c51.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9610649.1%52 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca0…4b6abacked Team Falcons73c48.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.251258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked Team Falcons73c46.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6810352.4%54 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Falcons74c46.24$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec7…8c25backed Nigma Galaxy28c45.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.681353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked Nigma Galaxy24c44.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.740539.3%159 W · 246 L-0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b48…88f2backed Team Falcons72c43.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.084447.7%21 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c50…7f4bbacked Team Falcons73c42.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.555052%26 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa15…270ebacked Team Falcons73c41.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.437050%35 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe523…c6afbacked Team Falcons73c41.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.326050%30 W · 30 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc59d…64adbacked Team Falcons74c40.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.635952.5%31 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Team Falcons73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.812568%85 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5dab…f602backed Nigma Galaxy27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc667…0359backed Team Falcons73c37.24$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2111050.9%56 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa3…0d9abacked Team Falcons73c36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2131…1e8bbacked Team Falcons69c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.84247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Team Falcons73c34.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1420349.8%101 W · 102 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c57…47aabacked Team Falcons73c32.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.924544.4%20 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5218…48d9backed Team Falcons73c29.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810451.9%54 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf33…4f09backed Team Falcons72c23.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.488055%44 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7981…dd95backed Team Falcons72c21.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.885657.1%32 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f8…5bf4backed Team Falcons73c20.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.656758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c8…f543backed Team Falcons73c20.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.56540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77da…9a99backed Team Falcons76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88bc…fc0dbacked Team Falcons73c18.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.998257.3%47 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7117…4339backed Team Falcons75c16.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.013839.5%15 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.