Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb5e98f1262186ef5264b8baad299ef26cd2427f9e672737cae9e2c1ee8c496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 448.88$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 416.72$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 44c | 341.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 256.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 59c | 241.28$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.76 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 29c | 238.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 76c | 211.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…6b6ebacked Yes | 58c | 186.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 34c | 186.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 38c | 177.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 31c | 177.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 26c | 120.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 107.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 91.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 85.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 78.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 53c | 75.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 74.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 71.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 60c | 70.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 43c | 69.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 68.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 32c | 62.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 25c | 59.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 48c | 58.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 26c | 55.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…8094backed Yes | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 53c | 49.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 44.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 66c | 42.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 29c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 36c | 36.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 79c | 34.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 36c | 33.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 62c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 31.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 46c | 29.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 27.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 74c | 26.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 38c | 26.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…3616backed No | 77c | 24.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…76bbbacked No | 55c | 22.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 54c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 71c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…5968backed Yes | 47c | 21.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 73c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.