Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: KRC Genk (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bc8b7c9f8444eb8f26f059bbd2197371be772a150ad388351aab16ae7eb04df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Freiburgof KRC Genk, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,655 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed KRC Genk | 15c | 4,999$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.87 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked KRC Genk | 28c | 1,249$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.52 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed KRC Genk | 15c | 1,017$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed SC Freiburg | 61c | 848.23$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.76 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed KRC Genk | 20c | 712.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked KRC Genk | 29c | 679.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed KRC Genk | 43c | 474.36$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.97 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SC Freiburg | 75c | 416.4$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 375.81$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked KRC Genk | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked KRC Genk | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked SC Freiburg | 69c | 283.22$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed KRC Genk | 23c | 79.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed KRC Genk | 15c | 66.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked KRC Genk | 16c | 63.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked SC Freiburg | 70c | 26.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: KRC Genk (-1.5)this page
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)KRC Genk won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)KRC Genk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.