Europa Conference League · resolved market
KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3530ae1a6a3e1eae94153860fc5e408ca40320fb1840f61819ebbcb3434dd128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,019 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 8,605$4,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,334.58 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 42c | 5,482$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.42 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 1,666$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.16 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 19c | 1,208$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.59 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 29c | 980.28$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.44 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 19c | 913$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.53 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 67c | 872.96$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.55 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 72c | 819.44$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 786.05$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.63 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…dee9backed Under | 26c | 304.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…7e4abacked Over | 74c | 304.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over | 67c | 282.09$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…f02abacked Over | 79c | 252.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…ea76backed Over | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 76c | 249.53$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…56c6backed Over | 73c | 219.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…eedfbacked Over | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 68c | 216.65$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 71c | 210.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 28c | 141.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 28c | 132.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 61c | 106.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…d043backed Over | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 103.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 19c | 102.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 73c | 101.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…5adabacked Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 67c | 95.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 86.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 27c | 77.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…3d82backed Over | 72c | 65.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 57c | 63.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 72c | 58.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 70c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 28c | 38.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 71c | 30.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 58c | 28.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 72c | 27.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…678cbacked Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Over | 71c | 24.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…fbb1backed Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…7e6abacked Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 72c | 19.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed Over | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5this page
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: KRC Genk (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)KRC Genk won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)KRC Genk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.