Tennis · resolved market
Wuning 2: Hayato Matsuoka vs Li Tu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7beecf0ef47909d2945764c67457444955e76c697a8aca2cfbcca3f3abf0c544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Li Tuof Hayato Matsuoka, Li Tu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hayato Matsuoka | 11c | 8,825$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.38 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 16c | 3,814$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.06 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Hayato Matsuoka | 15c | 2,544$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.58 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 17c | 2,004$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.14 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Hayato Matsuoka | 41c | 1,120$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.16 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 35c | 1,096$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.42 | 294 | 44.2%130 W · 164 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Hayato Matsuoka | 21c | 1,069$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.96 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Li Tu | 65c | 910.02$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.51 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Hayato Matsuoka | 14c | 637.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Hayato Matsuoka | 42c | 629$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0824…0a45backed Hayato Matsuoka | 32c | 593.16$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Hayato Matsuoka | 15c | 515.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…b808backed Hayato Matsuoka | 35c | 490.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.85 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Hayato Matsuoka | 14c | 477.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Hayato Matsuoka | 34c | 404.21$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Li Tu | 65c | 395.88$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…c1d0backed Hayato Matsuoka | 41c | 274.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…4bcdbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 9c | 272.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 143 | 33.6%48 W · 95 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…b309backed Li Tu | 58c | 249.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Li Tu | 62c | 218.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…6455backed Hayato Matsuoka | 5c | 215.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 121 | 7.4%9 W · 112 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked Li Tu | 59c | 213.6$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffb…b2f8backed Li Tu | 58c | 193.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…7f0fbacked Li Tu | 63c | 186.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Hayato Matsuoka | 14c | 174.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Li Tu | 61c | 160.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Hayato Matsuoka | 9c | 151.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hayato Matsuoka | 26c | 127.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Li Tu | 61c | 123.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 18c | 121.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Li Tu | 64c | 117.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Li Tu | 63c | 116.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hayato Matsuoka | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Li Tu | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Li Tu | 64c | 96.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Hayato Matsuoka | 36c | 95.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Hayato Matsuoka | 34c | 94.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Li Tu | 64c | 93.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Hayato Matsuoka | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Li Tu | 70c | 81.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Hayato Matsuoka | 36c | 77.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hayato Matsuoka | 37c | 74.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 28c | 73.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | -74.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Li Tu | 61c | 68.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Hayato Matsuoka | 39c | 65.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 322 | 47.2%152 W · 170 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Li Tu | 65c | 63.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Li Tu | 61c | 55.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Li Tu | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 27c | 51.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 567 | 54.5%309 W · 258 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Hayato Matsuoka | 40c | 47.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Li Tu | 63c | 39.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 299 | 52.2%156 W · 143 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Li Tu | 63c | 36.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 149 | 58.4%87 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Li Tu | 58c | 36.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed Hayato Matsuoka | 43c | 32.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…689cbacked Li Tu | 60c | 32.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…3f92backed Li Tu | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 224 | 82.6%185 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Li Tu | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Li Tu | 62c | 28.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 395 | 34.4%136 W · 259 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Li Tu | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Li Tu | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 617 | 52.5%324 W · 293 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf91…dc43backed Li Tu | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Li Tu | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…ad2dbacked Li Tu | 58c | 19.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Li Tu | 62c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wuning 2: Hayato Matsuoka vs Li Tuthis page
- Hayato Matsuoka vs. Li Tu: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Matsuoka vs TuTu won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.