MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c3c7f6e52ec49f60932eff2969130ccde1b7a9875d35d7f997998471b1ddd42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,727 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 1,626$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.66 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 861.54$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 779.64$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 369$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 362.1$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 355$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.05 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 353.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 352.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 296.09$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 214.35$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 208.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 195.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 172.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…247dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 158.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…ef02backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 154.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 106.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 103$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 89.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 73.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…f33fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 56.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 55.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 53.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 44.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 42.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 32.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 32.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 29.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 28.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…421bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 27.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…00d4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 24.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 24.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 22.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 22.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…fb0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…28abbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.