Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c3cb404b49aafd0820e06063325049f801db888d5b3ae80f815f35dfdb3f2c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 18c | 8,471$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.62 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Yes | 17c | 1,169$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…94ffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,020$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 679.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 575$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 4c | 349.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 16c | 318.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 13c | 291.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 7c | 278.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Yes | 17c | 243.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba8…c31fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 6c | 193.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…661bbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…921cbacked Yes | 16c | 167.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 21c | 146.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 14c | 138.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 16c | 119.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 17c | 118.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…3d2dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 18c | 88.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…dc9bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…1a9cbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 19c | 56.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-23?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-12-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.