Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48455a2eb1c1e723c52ecc2dd61f831e78c8eca86e1ff2ba28a628451fb1c93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 23c | 4,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 3,225$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.78 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 2,613$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.92 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 2,084$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.33 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 9c | 1,680$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,315$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…bacfbacked Yes | 69c | 974.75$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 821.89$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.64 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…d688backed Yes | 50c | 616.39$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 69c | 503.74$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8054…150cbacked Yes | 34c | 435.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 56c | 406.52$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.33 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 15c | 366.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.44 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 332.52$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.7 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Yes | 59c | 259.71$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 21c | 253$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.01 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Yes | 35c | 228.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 41c | 217.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 22c | 214.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 196.08$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…968fbacked Yes | 36c | 186.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 23c | 168.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9a…c2bfbacked Yes | 35c | 162.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 39c | 160.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…a128backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 18c | 119.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…9fe1backed No | 79c | 115$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f6…f337backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…ad59backed Yes | 64c | 98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 44c | 88.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 24c | 81.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 55c | 80.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked No | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 22c | 72.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 55.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…dba2backed No | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2647backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 57c | 44.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3617…d07fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…3352backed No | 36c | 29.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 71c | 21.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 65c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-23?No won
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-12-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.