Tennis · resolved market
Midland: Mary Stoiana vs Hanyu Guo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c4d62050c29ddacff8209f8fcadc91e990c88b95871f46462989949657dc931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guoof Stoiana, Guo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Stoiana | 28c | 5,531$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.59 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Guo | 60c | 4,606$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.87 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Stoiana | 44c | 3,389$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.25 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Guo | 57c | 2,969$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.03 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Guo | 56c | 1,418$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.6 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Guo | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.44 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Guo | 53c | 1,372$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.03 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Stoiana | 40c | 1,006$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Stoiana | 32c | 782.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Stoiana | 50c | 506.92$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.74 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Guo | 32c | 504.61$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.13 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Stoiana | 47c | 503.49$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…7505backed Stoiana | 12c | 385.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Stoiana | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.65 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Stoiana | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Stoiana | 75c | 232.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Stoiana | 45c | 222.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Stoiana | 55c | 214.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Guo | 37c | 190.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Guo | 48c | 173$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 306 | 45.1%138 W · 168 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Guo | 33c | 156.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 205 | 42.4%87 W · 118 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…722bbacked Guo | 26c | 136.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Stoiana | 48c | 125.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Stoiana | 67c | 121.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Guo | 56c | 103.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Stoiana | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Guo | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Guo | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed Stoiana | 52c | 78.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Stoiana | 27c | 64.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Guo | 39c | 52.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Guo | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 276 | 64.1%177 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Stoiana | 25c | 45.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…1c7dbacked Stoiana | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…fc99backed Guo | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Guo | 45c | 35.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Stoiana | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…1c75backed Stoiana | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 74%54 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Guo | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Guo | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Guo | 44c | 25.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +398.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7962…085dbacked Stoiana | 48c | 20.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…bff6backed Guo | 65c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Stoiana | 73c | 16.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Stoiana | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Guo | 78c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.