Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c54901e324e39cb40dc918f0f24ede534fd94b94d70a125e3af89152bfb5a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 1c | 2,501$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 1c | 1,887$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,138$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.3 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 70c | 653$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.3 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +19.6wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 652.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 47c | 646.73$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 566$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.38 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 16c | 422.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 382.56$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 320.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 261.1$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 248.97$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 220$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 201.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 169.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 143.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 136.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 21c | 100.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 286 | 32.2%92 W · 194 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 29c | 100.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 40c | 97.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 59c | 83.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 80.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 67.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 43c | 56.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 55.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 76c | 39.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…60fbbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 26.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 79c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.