Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16659577c65ae5947c85ffba9d57620672fc11bb81e5cdaeb178be9dd20b9e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 40c | 761.55$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.93 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 34c | 522.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 387.26$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 244.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…4347backed No | 59c | 227.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 194$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 181.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 148.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 27c | 140.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 130.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 38c | 124.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 62c | 120.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 57c | 112.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 84.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 70.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 67.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 66.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 62.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 44c | 62.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 24c | 55.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 74c | 54.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 123 | 65.9%81 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 53.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 50.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 47c | 47.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 286 | 32.2%92 W · 194 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 38c | 45.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 40.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 37.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 33.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 35c | 31.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 57c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 26.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 24.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 59c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 63c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 77c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 64c | 18.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 17.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.