MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c559af253c20496ecf5ec6271e548d91a505a1f246e59a215ed112d4eac70f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Over | 51c | 1,010$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 993.23$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.62 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 46c | 638$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.48 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 638$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 49c | 408.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.1 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 314$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 289.88$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 199.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 50c | 144$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 50c | 108.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…3b00backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Under | 53c | 87.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…333ebacked Under | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 50c | 27.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.