Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6ad34f5f320ed9d60d5ec995e0e7b4add964bf5f7d1ab16d8c91d5b0cfeb06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 26c | 399.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 65c | 335.73$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 20c | 320.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 67c | 297.06$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 58c | 289.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 245.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…cb34backed Yes | 53c | 240.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 56c | 199.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 60c | 186.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 27c | 159.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 59c | 157.65$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 29c | 139.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 26c | 132.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed No | 28c | 129.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…51b1backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 67c | 121.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 67c | 121.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 47c | 113.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 44c | 112.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 43c | 111.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 34c | 107.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 19c | 102.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 59c | 101.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 30c | 96.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 73c | 95.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 93.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…7e80backed No | 29c | 91.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 38c | 89.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…d4d2backed No | 29c | 86.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 19c | 74.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 71c | 71.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…0ae6backed Yes | 16c | 70.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…15edbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 18c | 69.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 73c | 66.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 64.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 30c | 61.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 52.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 49.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 37.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 59c | 37.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked Yes | 69c | 36.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 37c | 31.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 47c | 28.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 60c | 27.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 63c | 25.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 74c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…14aabacked Yes | 74c | 18.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.