Tennis · resolved market
Sao Paulo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c7d84412dc1f40649ec700abab7f377648125379d2c57fd1bec3086430d8576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Pablo Varillasof Juan Pablo Varillas, Luis Guto Miguel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,636 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 68c | 1,477$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.72 | 464 | 73.3%340 W · 124 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luis Guto Miguel | 13c | 1,050$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…b46abacked Luis Guto Miguel | 47c | 776.72$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.34 | 237 | 35%83 W · 154 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Luis Guto Miguel | 37c | 665.57$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.26 | 734 | 53%389 W · 345 L | +36.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 567.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.29 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Luis Guto Miguel | 44c | 455.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 433.08$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 66c | 397.46$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.96 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 56c | 357.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.23 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e29…68e3backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 63c | 315.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 308.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 67c | 304.48$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…e270backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 242.58$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 11c | 213.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 476 | 53.2%253 W · 223 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Luis Guto Miguel | 42c | 204.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 215 | 60.5%130 W · 85 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 156.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 218 | 45.9%100 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Luis Guto Miguel | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 149.63$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 128.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Luis Guto Miguel | 33c | 122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 63c | 112.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 95 | 65.3%62 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Luis Guto Miguel | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 55c | 94.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 84.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 57c | 77.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 34c | 75.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 43c | 73.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…768abacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 64c | 70.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 65.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 416 | 68%283 W · 133 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Luis Guto Miguel | 46c | 62.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 63c | 60.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 76c | 60.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Luis Guto Miguel | 42c | 52.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 34c | 51.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…74e3backed Luis Guto Miguel | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 69c | 48.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 62c | 48.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 60c | 45.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Luis Guto Miguel | 30c | 44.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Luis Guto Miguel | 46c | 43.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2926…1591backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 71c | 43.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…4d96backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 61c | 38.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 139 | 55.4%77 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Luis Guto Miguel | 44c | 35.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…1a64backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 66c | 34.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 56c | 32.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 371 | 56.3%209 W · 162 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Luis Guto Miguel | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Juan Pablo Varillas | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Luis Guto Miguel | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 976 | 44.6%435 W · 541 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…3db9backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 25.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…9093backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Juan Pablo Varillas | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 276 | 64.1%177 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sao Paulo: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luis Guto Miguelthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Varillas vs MiguelVarillas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.