World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cdc78fcf24559562e6fc43a8fe1b8c07ce48bc3db7cb317a54e5b73a72f27c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 32c | 792.54$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 38c | 263.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 171$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 163.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 115.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 44c | 73.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 79c | 69.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 58c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 67c | 62.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 66c | 62.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 68c | 50.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 42.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 32.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 24.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…092abacked Yes | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.