Tennis · resolved market

Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Maja Chwalinska

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cde84271ef070af5b2f69368e9ae44677b928169f307c7220131342359a24ce

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Raducanuof Raducanu, Chwalinska
Resolved: Feb 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $312,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $429,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,149 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Chwalinska	5c	42,426$2,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,066.71	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0a…24a9backed Chwalinska	16c	33,444$5,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,242.25	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Chwalinska	4c	23,505$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$941.71	809	38.8%314 W · 495 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chwalinska	5c	10,682$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.45	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Chwalinska	20c	8,241$1,648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,648.2	761	46.6%355 W · 406 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chwalinska	1c	3,400$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	656	47.6%312 W · 344 L	+17.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Chwalinska	21c	2,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	226	41.6%94 W · 132 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2e…9e01backed Chwalinska	4c	1,633$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.73	80	40%32 W · 48 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x313a…6475backed Chwalinska	6c	1,314$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Raducanu	80c	1,250$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	441	63.7%281 W · 160 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Raducanu	79c	1,236$976 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.56	872	51.1%446 W · 426 L	+8.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Chwalinska	18c	1,140$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.6	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Chwalinska	20c	1,137$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.3	163	40.5%66 W · 97 L	+6.3wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Chwalinska	20c	1,020$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	313	32.3%101 W · 212 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed Chwalinska	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Chwalinska	16c	949.64$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.47	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Chwalinska	13c	811.56$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…540bbacked Chwalinska	3c	698.74$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Chwalinska	2c	610$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Chwalinska	10c	594.39$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	973	7.9%77 W · 896 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Chwalinska	16c	494.71$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	61	27.9%17 W · 44 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Chwalinska	21c	476.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	420	46.9%197 W · 223 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e02…1f4abacked Chwalinska	20c	467$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.4	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Chwalinska	21c	397.62$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.5	373	39.1%146 W · 227 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Chwalinska	21c	333.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4890…03f1backed Chwalinska	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	99	16.2%16 W · 83 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chwalinska	4c	255.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…783bbacked Raducanu	80c	251$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.2	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Chwalinska	17c	250$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	4,076	39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L	+93.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Raducanu	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	1,076	55.5%597 W · 479 L	+8.5wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Chwalinska	20c	237.55$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.51	200	43.5%87 W · 113 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0f…2818backed Chwalinska	6c	235.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+87.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Chwalinska	9c	233.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Chwalinska	22c	223.86$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.25	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094d…59f3backed Chwalinska	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Raducanu	79c	203$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.63	704	65.2%459 W · 245 L	+29.1wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cd…841dbacked Chwalinska	22c	200.15$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.03	101	22.8%23 W · 78 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Chwalinska	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	668	31.3%209 W · 459 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Chwalinska	21c	194$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.74	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Chwalinska	18c	187.61$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.77	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3393…3519backed Chwalinska	20c	170$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raducanu	78c	153.73$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.42	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Chwalinska	18c	138.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c28…ff31backed Raducanu	80c	137$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.4	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6da1…d6bcbacked Chwalinska	20c	120$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Chwalinska	22c	114$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chwalinska	14c	107.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	7,816	50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L	+95.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e6…45e9backed Raducanu	79c	106.46$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.36	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b16…f3febacked Raducanu	80c	98.21$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-6.9wins	-0.38per pick	66cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7bee…31fdbacked Chwalinska	11c	97.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Chwalinska	21c	95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	602	40.5%244 W · 358 L	-12.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Chwalinska	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	749	61.8%463 W · 286 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Raducanu	79c	83.01$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.43	1,056	55.4%585 W · 471 L	-22.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46e7…c9e4backed Chwalinska	21c	82.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-5.5wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbeb0…4cd4backed Chwalinska	20c	80$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4712…5bd6backed Raducanu	80c	71.35$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.27	144	75%108 W · 36 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	71cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc132…57b0backed Raducanu	80c	70$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	75cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84a4…21c4backed Raducanu	80c	68.75$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	65cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked Chwalinska	21c	60.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Chwalinska	20c	59.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	249	31.3%78 W · 171 L	-10.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Raducanu	77c	53$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.19	160	46.9%75 W · 85 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Chwalinska	21c	49.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x908f…9901backed Raducanu	79c	48.1$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.1	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Raducanu	80c	40.84$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	341	59.5%203 W · 138 L	-8.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raducanu	78c	39.19$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.62	1,039	54.6%567 W · 472 L	+37.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a9…f72ebacked Raducanu	79c	39$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.24per pick	61cpaid	+46%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9840…cb31backed Raducanu	78c	38$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…668abacked Raducanu	78c	38$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4da6…0aa0backed Raducanu	80c	37.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbba…e95bbacked Raducanu	79c	36$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	51cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa60c…b395backed Raducanu	79c	36$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf71c…488bbacked Raducanu	79c	33$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.93	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	62cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5dfb…5240backed Raducanu	80c	31.25$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Raducanu	79c	28$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.88	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.24per pick	46cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x663b…e26cbacked Raducanu	78c	26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.72	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab89…16d8backed Raducanu	80c	25.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.02	4	75%3 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Raducanu	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	39	59%23 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…bdfcbacked Raducanu	79c	22$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.62	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Raducanu	79c	21.15$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.44	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…adb9backed Raducanu	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.1	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…4e57backed Raducanu	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	35	74.3%26 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	70cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Raducanu	78c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.52	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x112e…0d1fbacked Raducanu	79c	15.06$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.16	349	65%227 W · 122 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Raducanu	80c	14$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.8	74	59.5%44 W · 30 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3c1…e6c5backed Raducanu	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Maja Chwalinskathis page
Raducanu vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Raducanu vs. Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Set 1 Winner: Raducanu vs ChwalinskaRaducanu won
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5)Raducanu won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Maja Chwalinska

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event