Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce1e5316b3291de84546191253b0f9a5987a3dde0628d49fe65d7045fa528bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 34c | 319.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.9 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 20c | 234.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 39c | 165.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 155$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 135.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 107.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 98.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 25c | 86.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 40c | 74.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 67.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 52.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 50.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 78c | 48.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 68c | 47.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 66c | 46.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 27c | 41.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 35.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 32.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 37c | 31.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 22.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 20.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.