NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cee99ae263ec9252daa69ee980608a5e13d6e21c9824ae9f471c435dccd4a20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 7,086$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,864.14 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 55c | 5,789$3,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,163.45 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Under | 54c | 2,781$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 1,341$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.38 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 46c | 1,064$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.83 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 47c | 868$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.04 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 52c | 848.9$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.43 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 538$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.98 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 55c | 513.73$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.55 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 55c | 383$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.97 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 360.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 48c | 178.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Under | 8c | 144.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Over | 47c | 123.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 87.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 87.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 49.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 52c | 36.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Under | 55c | 32.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…b2f4backed Over | 42c | 25.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Over | 58c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.