NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b74b5f7915ba4773f14f5e60ac92c66acb389f41ae02d73f56ec887e6e53c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 57c | 5,324$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.16 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 4,936$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.98 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 57c | 3,286$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.96 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 43c | 1,447$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.22 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 43c | 958.54$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.17 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 43c | 872$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.96 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 5c | 654.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 59c | 500.88$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.36 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 43c | 350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Over | 59c | 254.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 41c | 171.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 23c | 114$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 42c | 97.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 42c | 82.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 66.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.