Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf6177b974c5b7016fee471218bffc537ddebcbc016f74cee2bad5bfb3aea84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 337.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 325.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 246.19$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 231.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 206.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 200.11$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 199.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 187.04$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 161.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 73c | 157.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed No | 73c | 143.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 141.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 112.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 25c | 111.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 104.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 34c | 74.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 32c | 72.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 26c | 69.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed No | 74c | 63.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 59.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 36c | 57.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 67c | 56.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 29c | 56.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 74c | 48.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked No | 71c | 45.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 27c | 41.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…189ebacked No | 77c | 40.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 78cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 73c | 39.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 69c | 38.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 71c | 38.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 73c | 35.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 70c | 34.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 34.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 66c | 28.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 76c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 27.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 73c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 69c | 26.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 74c | 24.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…292ebacked No | 70c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 18.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…317bbacked No | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.