World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d1f53b13abe59dc76659d91d7ece500f1e71f018eca9fc4eef1493564acb8db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 406.98$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.11 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 366.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 73c | 182.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 31c | 182.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 130.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 117.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked Yes | 68c | 115$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 30c | 113.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 107.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 18c | 95.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +123%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 83.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 81.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 23c | 81.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 47.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 32c | 38.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 32.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 65c | 28.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…c211backed Yes | 75c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 72c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.