Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d24ab0b93b312d7db76fdf7a1caceb7060f2a1ff9bcd17a3a6cf19fd5a63582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 4c | 415$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 196.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 56c | 177.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 56c | 151.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…e719backed Yes | 10c | 149.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 129.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 108.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 77.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 58.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 54.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 57c | 54.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 49.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 42.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 68c | 42.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 42.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 38.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 36.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 34.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 44c | 33.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 64c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 63c | 17.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.