Lol · resolved market
LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d4728316faf9ff804dd8d2a717d3458580a3106e729cfa5e1beaf37631a4db2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof FlyQuest, Vivo Keyd Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 5c | 10,643$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.54 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…5aedbacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 4c | 8,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 10c | 6,554$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.39 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 13c | 6,292$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 13c | 6,012$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.65 | 303 | 21.8%66 W · 237 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 8c | 3,743$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.15 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 11c | 3,156$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 13c | 2,816$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.92 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 8c | 1,671$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…6525backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 8c | 650.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked FlyQuest | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 4c | 480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 11c | 410$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 168 | 28.6%48 W · 120 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 480 | 35.4%170 W · 310 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 808 | 32.9%266 W · 542 L | -43.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…7d1abacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +155%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 10c | 131.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…bda6backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Vivo Keyd Stars | 14c | 69.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 923 | 42.7%394 W · 529 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FlyQuest | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Vivo Keyd Stars | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.