Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d4a903497bd230eaee56b6456e272f7e323de51ba7eaa2fe70bb8df9f2d4768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 0c | 15,676$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes | 71c | 1,169$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…153cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 451.45$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 14c | 231.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 28c | 139.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 57c | 136.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed Yes | 44c | 133.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 60c | 130.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 66c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 35c | 107.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…b627backed No | 57c | 104.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 11c | 102.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 59c | 99.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 99.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 46c | 98.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 33c | 90.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 59c | 86.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 55c | 77.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 69.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 32c | 51.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 32c | 45.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 29c | 44.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 57c | 43.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…04ecbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 56c | 42.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…fec7backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…2033backed Yes | 70c | 39.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 55c | 35.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 54c | 27.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 42c | 27.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 59c | 23.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 43c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 54c | 22.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 70c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.