Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6103b206f8cb4730add4d4fee1d027b73cbf34b9656d9fb887e32f4200895a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 742.06$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 550$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 531.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 65c | 472.58$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 79c | 451.01$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 28c | 446.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 429.78$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.62 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 78c | 251.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 244$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 208.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 35c | 165.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 157.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 35c | 119.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 27c | 119.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 36c | 117.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 28c | 106.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 32c | 100.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 99.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…47e8backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 36c | 88.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 24c | 85.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 84.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed No | 65c | 83.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 74.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…fec7backed Yes | 36c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 65.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 39.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 65c | 38.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 36c | 33.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 36c | 33.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…9bd1backed No | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…2033backed Yes | 38c | 29.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.