TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes29c1,003$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.311,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes50c524.42$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.981844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes46c441.87$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.873850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes45c375.37$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.026852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No65c258.06$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.031,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes29c196.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c192.32$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes42c186.66$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c181.82$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.832,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes53c164.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5781234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No58c158.68$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.924235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes37c149.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9928737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No68c148.14$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5810246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5a…9321backed Yes60c147.04$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.03922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c144.59$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.883,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No74c140.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10518242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed No75c140.76$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10525447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes25c130$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.584,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes32c127.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5971823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes41c123.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.660851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c107.42$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes34c101.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.668521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.63,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed No52c94.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.994346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes42c93.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.332532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes44c88.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.113,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba0…21dfbacked No69c85.74$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2dc…b534backed Yes40c72.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.42650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+85.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes38c71.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.484517.8%8 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No66c64.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8924149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bdf…98a3backed No45c63.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.78549.4%42 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed No56c63.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.825530.9%17 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef09…b99fbacked No66c56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.96147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-89.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed Yes50c53.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8410150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2972726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353941%16 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes33c47.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No66c46.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.651,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e7…1d7bbacked Yes48c45.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbee2…ba9ebacked Yes66c45.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.56785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+55.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77ba…26afbacked Yes77c44.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No63c43.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.36767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2834970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes46c39.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5512357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No77c37.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2427560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No42c35.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8834457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd387…33acbacked No64c31.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c27.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c27.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed No64c23.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.048139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9736…64b8backed No57c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310151.5%52 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35cd…9fa9backed No61c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.922222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x301f…8412backed No60c21.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No73c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.463656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x963d…18c2backed No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x554a…96e3backed Yes77c14.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.293852.6%20 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.