Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e5a969636c1b0fb4cbee1299236567b92b65e3b276abf07f574eab4f1d6268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,595$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 706.95$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 629.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 39c | 352.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 342.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ea8ebacked Yes | 27c | 317.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +177.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 299.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…d802backed Yes | 47c | 248.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 189.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…9b7cbacked Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 60c | 168.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 154.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 74c | 137.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 21c | 137$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 76c | 134.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 129.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 71c | 126.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 125.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 30c | 116.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…da99backed Yes | 45c | 110.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 29c | 104.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 104.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 39c | 103.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 103.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 28c | 100.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…02ebbacked Yes | 30c | 99.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 97.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 25c | 95.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 44c | 86.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 80.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 43c | 78.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 73.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…778fbacked Yes | 45c | 72.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…5190backed Yes | 32c | 65.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 34c | 59.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…6586backed No | 79c | 58.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3e…6319backed Yes | 32c | 58.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 23c | 55.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…8963backed Yes | 33c | 54.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 33c | 48.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 33c | 48.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 56c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…1629backed Yes | 45c | 44.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 44.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 43.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 40c | 42.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 65c | 41.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…1c2ebacked Yes | 30c | 40.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…04edbacked Yes | 33c | 33.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…65a5backed Yes | 32c | 33.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b534backed Yes | 46c | 28.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 57c | 20.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.