Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Bergs vs. Khachanov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d9f09a2b002fb4ad19ca25e379d7f81f330e5d26e99e346b635012f66e6f57f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Khachanovof Bergs , Khachanov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Bergs | 27c | 2,044$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.72 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Khachanov | 68c | 2,010$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.07 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Bergs | 30c | 1,864$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.07 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Bergs | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Khachanov | 64c | 1,442$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.74 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Khachanov | 63c | 1,232$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.89 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Bergs | 37c | 1,200$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Bergs | 22c | 1,125$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.05 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Khachanov | 64c | 851.36$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.49 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Bergs | 36c | 545.81$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Khachanov | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bergs | 17c | 500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Khachanov | 63c | 491.94$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Bergs | 35c | 485.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…59f3backed Khachanov | 65c | 306.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Bergs | 36c | 305.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Khachanov | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bergs | 37c | 271.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bergs | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Bergs | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…7d42backed Bergs | 6c | 231.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Bergs | 31c | 226.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bergs | 35c | 201.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Khachanov | 66c | 151.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Bergs | 18c | 147.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Khachanov | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…30b5backed Bergs | 39c | 86.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Khachanov | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Bergs | 35c | 75.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bergs | 35c | 55.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed Khachanov | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Bergs | 25c | 45.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Bergs | 37c | 29.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.