Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Braga beat IF Elfsborg?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7db4893fbde71c0ccc35453b5e71d9132309e3dc00fd1db710b581de666ddfe8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 50c | 1,500$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 57c | 1,052$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.21 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 47c | 1,028$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…5529backed No | 29c | 650.35$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 71c | 646$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 47c | 538.74$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 50c | 530.18$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…705ebacked Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 55c | 504.35$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 53c | 428.94$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…c838backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…fcf8backed Yes | 50c | 398.18$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e3…21d5backed Yes | 47c | 250$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 54c | 218$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Yes | 46c | 218$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…d0aebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…e13cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Braga beat IF Elfsborg?this page
- Will IF Elfsborg beat Braga?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.