Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd7cbbf26c5fe46cf26c5996bf7f46afe9bc8c86eef55922c692e60426a11ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 16c | 149.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed No | 75c | 144.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 34c | 143.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 139.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 118.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 105.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 89.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 87.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 13c | 80.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 70.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 41c | 69.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 27c | 59.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 71c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 52.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 32c | 51.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 48c | 45.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 62c | 39.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 46c | 39.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 31c | 38.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…1b39backed No | 34c | 36.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 34.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes | 74c | 33.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 29.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 64c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 28.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 28.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 56c | 21.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 66c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…682cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd660…a6aebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.