Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7deab001b4967cc57278c88614e4bbd14ad5b6181fb7e76bd3f3b5b1beff0484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 554.21$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 296.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 276.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 59c | 171.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 42c | 136.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 133.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 42c | 114.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 46c | 103.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 98.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 93.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 38c | 91.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 76.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 72c | 70.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 26c | 66.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 42c | 58.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 57.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 33c | 56.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 54.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 72c | 54.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 49.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 60c | 49.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 42.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 36c | 41.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 59c | 40.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 26c | 39.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 38c | 38.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 38.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 35c | 38.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 37.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 69c | 36.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 34.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 59c | 33.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 52c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 37c | 27.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 67c | 23.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 46c | 22.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 55c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 19.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 69c | 16.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 79c | 15.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.