Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e8c5a092378067f52869cdfa2da8de0435f6cf07df639b1f7036467e0e31014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 67c | 323.53$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.52 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 261.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.06 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 40c | 233.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 202.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 155.48$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 15c | 133.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 132.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 113.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 108.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 76.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 20c | 70.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea73…d49ebacked Yes | 16c | 67.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 63.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 53c | 62.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 57.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 25c | 55.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 51.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 48c | 49.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 49.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 66c | 43.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 64c | 38.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 38.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 39c | 36.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 33.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 29.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 29.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 69c | 21.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.