Fifa International · resolved market
Morocco vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e195b7cbd307a9c0bb9c369c70cb22c4973a6b908734500f3590f9e78dac815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 1c | 2,044$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…b159backed Over | 80c | 1,000$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 34c | 503.37$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.22 | 285 | 45.3%129 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 479.69$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.18 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 430.02$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.44 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 29c | 429.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.18 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 43c | 281.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.12 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 6c | 166$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 150.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Under | 60c | 82.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 33c | 81.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 67c | 61.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 387 | 45%174 W · 213 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 328 | 55.8%183 W · 145 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 35c | 38.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 59c | 33.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…1467backed Over | 63c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…48c6backed Under | 60c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 78c | 17.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 67c | 17.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…e52ebacked Over | 60c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Morocco vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5this page
- Morocco vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Morocco vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- Morocco vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Morocco vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Morocco (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Morocco (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Morocco won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Morocco won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.