Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.50 March 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e4b3e7675a5c7e9f4c109bf96fadf4ed78bb9bf718769fd61e257519981013e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,350 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 19c | 3,590$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.25 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 80c | 2,359$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.87 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…9055backed No | 80c | 1,341$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.73 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…6d51backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 654$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 43c | 570.56$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.19 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 45c | 514.04$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.43 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 5c | 395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…804bbacked Yes | 10c | 387.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ef…a1c6backed Yes | 39c | 382.56$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 74c | 325.37$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…d2acbacked No | 77c | 292.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…cc82backed Yes | 23c | 287.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 273.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…760dbacked Yes | 4c | 266.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c495backed Yes | 37c | 230.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd78…6298backed Yes | 5c | 210.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 202.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 10c | 197.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e47…1e75backed Yes | 43c | 151.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 110.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…17cbbacked Yes | 38c | 102.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…01abbacked Yes | 19c | 76.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 74c | 70.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…bc08backed Yes | 36c | 40.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 60c | 28.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…6523backed No | 65c | 26.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 75c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.50 March 9-15?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 March 9-15?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 March 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.