Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e5fae74dd769d060445273c7099b8dcf8f8ce912c1122d2f08a1437b5628099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 390.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 37c | 312.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 39c | 275.51$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 60c | 196.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 157.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 44c | 109.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…8785backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…05fabacked Yes | 16c | 95.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 82.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 65c | 75.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 62c | 72.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 61c | 59.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 52.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 52.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 42.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 40.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 42c | 36.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed Yes | 38c | 33.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 37c | 29.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 65c | 26.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 56c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 61c | 16.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.