Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5132b8ab92149d5c5825b2b303eca69402f378b23604657add141e5ecc23014c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 1,363$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 29c | 1,135$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.13 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 64c | 990.56$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.48 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 493.57$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.44 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…30d0backed Yes | 42c | 489.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 77c | 342.66$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 315.17$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 271.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 225.5$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 193.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 21c | 168.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 119.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 26c | 107.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 104.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…e520backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…05fabacked Yes | 70c | 92.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 84.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 67c | 75.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 35c | 75.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 73c | 63.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 20c | 56.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…7f6fbacked Yes | 43c | 54.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 53.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 1,128 | 55.4%625 W · 503 L | -30.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 35c | 43.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 43.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 41.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 40.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 38.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 46c | 32.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 59c | 31.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb3…f51fbacked No | 56c | 30.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 65c | 29.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 23.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…4c85backed Yes | 75c | 21.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 74cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 60c | 17.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 16.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.