Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e8115e1838666a1432b54e19986632b8ab27367aeab5754d9270dbfe4ff103f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Two Moveof Team Lynx, Two Move
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d36…51debacked Team Lynx | 30c | 1,151$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.51 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Two Move | 69c | 744.88$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.16 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Two Move | 76c | 469.9$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Two Move | 69c | 445.48$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Team Lynx | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx | 37c | 299.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…449ebacked Team Lynx | 25c | 265.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Two Move | 63c | 247.68$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Two Move | 46c | 223.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Team Lynx | 54c | 194.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Two Move | 46c | 188$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3fa8backed Team Lynx | 55c | 181.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Team Lynx | 26c | 153$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Team Lynx | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Two Move | 74c | 137.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…8663backed Team Lynx | 28c | 117.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Lynx | 34c | 108.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Team Lynx | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Two Move | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Lynx | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Team Lynx | 54c | 94.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Team Lynx | 37c | 77.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…e5c2backed Team Lynx | 25c | 67.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 40c | 67.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Team Lynx | 31c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…17cfbacked Two Move | 45c | 54.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Two Move | 48c | 52.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Two Move | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Team Lynx | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Two Move | 62c | 41.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Two Move | 45c | 39.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Two Move | 76c | 35.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Team Lynx | 55c | 35.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb02…7abdbacked Two Move | 75c | 33.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…1a19backed Two Move | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Two Move | 64c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…03babacked Two Move | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move - Game 1 WinnerTwo Move won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move - Game 2 WinnerTwo Move won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.