Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab28c79b37ef9c5573582afab0b74676256c666d5723c2ecfa21f13c89e61edb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Two Moveof Team Lynx, Two Move
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 51c | 2,204$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Two Move | 49c | 2,150$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.5 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Two Move | 54c | 1,774$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.84 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Two Move | 49c | 1,220$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.23 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 43c | 1,170$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.64 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Lynx | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 705.34$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.81 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx | 47c | 493$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.71 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Two Move | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Team Lynx | 45c | 378.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Two Move | 73c | 340.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed Two Move | 78c | 330.32$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…43d6backed Team Lynx | 66c | 287$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…750abacked Two Move | 47c | 277$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 163 | 28.8%47 W · 116 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Lynx | 61c | 252$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.32 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Lynx | 49c | 236.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Two Move | 45c | 226.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Team Lynx | 49c | 204.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Two Move | 60c | 182.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Two Move | 53c | 176.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Two Move | 61c | 164.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Two Move | 64c | 147.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 47c | 147.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Two Move | 50c | 123.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Two Move | 55c | 101.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Two Move | 51c | 98.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 52c | 96.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Lynx | 64c | 87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Lynx | 43c | 80.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx | 48c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…ba12backed Two Move | 53c | 75.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Two Move | 50c | 71.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Team Lynx | 65c | 61.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Team Lynx | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Two Move | 45c | 58.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx | 41c | 54.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Two Move | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Team Lynx | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Team Lynx | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Two Move | 56c | 49.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Two Move | 51c | 49.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…7658backed Two Move | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Two Move | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Team Lynx | 58c | 39.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Lynx | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fac…b3b4backed Two Move | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Team Lynx | 51c | 36.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsTwo Move won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move - Game 1 WinnerTwo Move won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.