Tennis · resolved market
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea4eb161642158069007c5e47972630912c02c2ed612cafc1bdc4921987eeb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,364$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.05 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 642.15$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.63 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 611.94$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 347 | 61.1%212 W · 135 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…d5b2backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 149.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 3.5 | 62c | 146.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…40b1backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 145.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 144.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…9dbabacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 131.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…6655backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 82.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 33.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…8e55backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arthur Rinderknech vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Rinderknech vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo BerrettiniMatteo Berrettini won
- Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs BerrettiniBerrettini won
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)Berrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.