Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ead2a62d4838adc6eb0fbcc42a4124f4f8f25983642f20263eb6a56d64c38c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Port Vale FCof Sunderland AFC, Port Vale FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,536 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Sunderland AFC | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.98 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Port Vale FC | 61c | 2,934$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.44 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Port Vale FC | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Port Vale FC | 69c | 1,764$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.15 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Port Vale FC | 68c | 1,437$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.55 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Port Vale FC | 61c | 1,427$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.92 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Sunderland AFC | 25c | 1,250$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.46 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Port Vale FC | 61c | 688.52$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.52 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…2514backed Sunderland AFC | 37c | 655.52$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Sunderland AFC | 33c | 598.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Port Vale FC | 62c | 525.87$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.87 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Sunderland AFC | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Port Vale FC | 68c | 350.44$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.14 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Sunderland AFC | 37c | 311$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Port Vale FC | 69c | 248.05$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Port Vale FC | 63c | 194.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…e589backed Port Vale FC | 63c | 183.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…49e4backed Port Vale FC | 63c | 177.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Sunderland AFC | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Sunderland AFC | 37c | 160.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Port Vale FC | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Port Vale FC | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…0314backed Port Vale FC | 63c | 99.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Port Vale FC | 61c | 73.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Port Vale FC | 64c | 57.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sunderland AFC | 24c | 43.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Port Vale FC | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Port Vale FC | 61c | 35.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Sunderland AFC | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Sunderland AFC | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…97e2backed Sunderland AFC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…717abacked Port Vale FC | 67c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Port Vale FC | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Port Vale FC | 64c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)this page
- Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Port Vale FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.