NHL · resolved market
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Coachella Valley Firebirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb8d1d794de1b35ae961d3cce664c68d79ad83b86dbf05f6d3ff9187d051755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coachella Valley Firebirdsof Ontario Reign, Coachella Valley Firebirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eb7…a0f1backed Ontario Reign | 59c | 666.43$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 45c | 301.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.46 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Ontario Reign | 29c | 227.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ontario Reign | 55c | 211.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 72c | 210.4$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 45c | 194.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Ontario Reign | 56c | 153.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 451 | 49.4%223 W · 228 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ontario Reign | 18c | 145.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3626…3834backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 43c | 102.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Ontario Reign | 40c | 94.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 60c | 71.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 43c | 59.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 45c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 68c | 40.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 40c | 35.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d2…7f8dbacked Ontario Reign | 56c | 35.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 91 | 78%71 W · 20 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Ontario Reign | 56c | 29.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Ontario Reign | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 25.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.