World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ebd0a175399c409283699400456aa7785584abffc0957aa57e24c75338edc99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 36c | 800$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked No | 71c | 660$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 63c | 211$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 196.64$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 27c | 191.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 145.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 99.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 97.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…eb94backed Yes | 27c | 81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 72.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 31c | 68.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 69c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 65c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.