MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec5bcff252be3f6db80407637957f36c00a310559b557282fe847a01f42f6a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 41c | 10,000$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,900 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Athletics | 59c | 8,343$4,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,922.39 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 50c | 5,502$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 53c | 3,485$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 59c | 1,400$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 42c | 1,295$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 47c | 1,130$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 41c | 1,011$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 52c | 818.45$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 58c | 626.83$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 66c | 540.22$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.96 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 40c | 496.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.46 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Athletics | 58c | 420$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 261$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Athletics | 59c | 250.1$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Athletics | 60c | 179.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Yankees | 53c | 178$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Athletics | 59c | 154.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 58c | 149.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Athletics | 59c | 132.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed New York Yankees | 54c | 79.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Athletics | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Athletics | 58c | 34.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed New York Yankees | 42c | 31.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked New York Yankees | 42c | 29.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…6b9cbacked Athletics | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees | 53c | 23.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked New York Yankees | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…f5ecbacked Athletics | 60c | 18.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 19.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 20.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 21.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-9.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.