MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd536f44ef4f338274caf7b2693e9af2dc7a5e438a82bfe737f6b46b87a22efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 11,345$5,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,304.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,433.96 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 7,080$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311.67 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 7,070$3,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 4,774$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.02 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.97 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 52c | 1,915$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.1 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 44c | 1,894$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.05 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 1,092$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 55c | 918.41$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.99 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 912.81$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 544.03$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 399$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 357$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 47c | 355.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 46c | 264.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.92 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 54c | 252$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 179.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 46c | 143.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Under | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…ed90backed Over | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Over | 53c | 70.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 53c | 57.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 46c | 55.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 43.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 56c | 37.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 33.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Over | 55c | 31.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 45c | 30.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Under | 45c | 30.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 53c | 25.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 52c | 25.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 22.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 56c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 18.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 19.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 20.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 21.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 22.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-9.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.