MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef8cb7100755fbd15271adb5ab9b4e64adb06bdbbca2c536e8e323534ea253f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 883.73$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 45c | 641$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 44c | 454.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.66 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 362.11$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.16 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1a…72f3backed Under | 59c | 356.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 51c | 253.2$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 73c | 137.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd7…f2c8backed Under | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 51c | 64.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 48.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.