MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b4ecf6e5146b860d281c6087ac541069d99723268e838e33d50e7fea22440c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $374,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 68c | 168,621$114,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,092.2 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 55c | 22,320$12,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,044 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 49c | 15,652$7,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,717.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 14,718$4,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,743.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 11,162$6,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,078.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 5,820$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,825.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 73c | 2,089$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.18 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 51c | 489.01$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.57 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Under | 56c | 348.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 232.74$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.68 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 32c | 163.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 30c | 152$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 33c | 151.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Over | 50c | 148.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 33c | 127.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Under | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 42.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 54c | 32.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f504backed Under | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…2d0bbacked Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Under | 73c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.